Prevailing Sources of Bilateral Tension and Unresolved Issues in India–Bangladesh Relations: A Contemporary Analysis
Introduction
India and Bangladesh share a deeply intertwined historical, cultural, and geopolitical relationship. India played a pivotal role in the birth of Bangladesh in 1971, laying the foundation for strong bilateral ties. However, despite episodes of robust cooperation—particularly under the current political leadership in both countries—persistent structural and political issues continue to strain the relationship. These unresolved matters span the domains of transboundary water sharing, border management, migration, trade asymmetry, minority rights, and regional security. While cooperation has intensified in recent years, particularly on economic and infrastructural fronts, these fault lines complicate the trajectory of an otherwise strategic partnership.
This essay identifies and critically analyzes the prevailing sources of bilateral tension and unresolved disputes that shape the contemporary dynamics of India–Bangladesh relations, assessing their impact on long-term stability and regional cooperation in South Asia.
I. Transboundary Water Sharing and Hydro-Political Disputes
1.1 Teesta River Dispute
The most contentious and politically sensitive issue in India–Bangladesh relations is the Teesta River water-sharing agreement, which has remained pending since the draft deal of 2011:
- Bangladesh accuses India of unilateral withdrawal of Teesta waters, especially during dry seasons, severely impacting agriculture in northern Bangladesh.
- The delay is largely due to domestic political opposition in the Indian state of West Bengal, whose Chief Minister has withheld support for the agreement, citing adverse effects on farmers in North Bengal.
This subnational veto underscores the federal complications in India’s foreign policy formulation, and Bangladesh’s growing impatience has created diplomatic friction.
1.2 Broader Basin-Level Cooperation Challenges
Beyond Teesta, India and Bangladesh share 54 transboundary rivers, but the absence of a comprehensive basin-wide framework creates fragmentation and mismanagement:
- The Ganga Water Treaty (1996) is due for review in 2026, and climate change-induced variations in flow patterns have raised concerns about its sustainability.
- There is no binding mechanism for real-time data-sharing, flood control, or upstream-downstream impact mitigation, particularly regarding India’s dam-building plans.
Thus, hydro-political asymmetry and lack of institutionalised cooperation continue to fuel mistrust.
II. Border Management and Illegal Migration
2.1 Border Killings and Security Infrastructure
India and Bangladesh share a 4,096-kilometre border, the fifth-longest in the world, and yet it remains a zone of recurring tension and violence:
- Incidents of shootings by India’s Border Security Force (BSF)—often justified on grounds of combating cattle smuggling and illegal movement—have drawn strong condemnation from Dhaka and civil society groups.
- Despite formal agreements on non-lethal border policing, implementation remains inconsistent, leading to civilian deaths and diplomatic tension.
These incidents damage public perception and provide fodder for populist nationalist narratives on both sides.
2.2 Migration and Citizenship Controversies
The issues of illegal migration, demographic change, and identity politics have long animated India’s domestic discourse, particularly in Assam and West Bengal:
- The National Register of Citizens (NRC) process in Assam and the proposed Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) have raised concerns in Bangladesh, which fears diplomatic scapegoating and potential influx of stateless individuals.
- Though India has reassured that the issue is internal, Dhaka remains wary of politically-motivated narratives that implicate Bangladesh in cross-border infiltration.
This issue combines sovereignty sensitivities, electoral politics, and ethno-national anxieties, creating recurrent diplomatic unease.
III. Trade Asymmetries and Economic Perceptions
3.1 Perceived Imbalances in Bilateral Trade
Although bilateral trade has grown significantly—crossing $18 billion in 2022—Bangladesh continues to voice concerns about:
- A widening trade deficit, with India enjoying a significant surplus.
- Non-tariff barriers (NTBs), customs delays, and restrictive regulatory frameworks that hinder Bangladeshi exports, especially in textiles, jute, and agro-products.
India has taken some steps, such as granting duty-free access under SAFTA, but the persistence of NTBs undermines equitable integration.
3.2 Regional Connectivity and Infrastructure Politics
While infrastructure initiatives such as BBIN (Bangladesh–Bhutan–India–Nepal) and freight rail corridors have enhanced connectivity, Bangladesh remains cautious about:
- Becoming over-dependent on India for transit and access.
- The politicisation of infrastructure corridors, particularly where Chinese investment is viewed as an alternative.
Thus, economic relations are shadowed by perceptions of asymmetry, power imbalance, and strategic hedging.
IV. Rohingya Refugee Crisis and Security Spillovers
Bangladesh has hosted over 1 million Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution in Myanmar. India’s lukewarm support, limited humanitarian assistance, and concerns about security threats emanating from refugee camps (e.g., potential radicalisation) have created a wedge:
- India’s deportation of Rohingyas, despite UN concerns, is seen by Dhaka as insensitive to the regional burden-sharing principle.
- The refugee issue has also introduced complex trilateral dynamics, where India’s relations with Myanmar intersect with Bangladesh’s demands for repatriation guarantees and international mediation.
This adds another layer of humanitarian diplomacy and regional security complexity to bilateral ties.
V. Political Trust and Third-Party Influence
5.1 Bilateral Trust and Regime Sensitivity
While India and Bangladesh have enjoyed strong ties under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government, the future of bilateral trust remains regime-contingent:
- India is often perceived as favouring the Awami League, which could backfire politically if opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) return to power.
- There is popular resentment in Bangladesh against perceived Indian influence in domestic political processes, amplified by civil society and media critiques.
5.2 China’s Expanding Presence
Bangladesh’s economic partnership with China—notably in infrastructure, defence procurement, and trade—has introduced a geopolitical undercurrent into India–Bangladesh relations:
- India remains wary of Bangladesh’s growing involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Chinese-funded projects like Padma Bridge and Payra Port.
- While Dhaka balances ties cautiously, India’s zero-sum strategic calculus could lead to tensions over third-party alignments.
Conclusion
Despite moments of strategic convergence and high-level diplomacy, India–Bangladesh relations remain constrained by enduring bilateral irritants and structural asymmetries. Issues such as water-sharing, border management, migration, trade imbalances, and external alignments reflect both material interests and identity-based anxieties.
To ensure a sustainable partnership, both nations must institutionalize mechanisms of trust-building, conflict resolution, and cooperative regionalism. India must demonstrate sensitivity to Bangladesh’s sovereignty and developmental aspirations, while Bangladesh must navigate domestic and external pressures without undermining bilateral stability.
Ultimately, India–Bangladesh relations offer a test case for whether asymmetrical neighbours can forge equitable partnerships rooted in mutual respect, regionalism, and shared prosperity.
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