How has the impact of electoral systems and cleavages on party system formation in developing nations evolved over time, particularly in the context of democratization processes, globalization, and the emergence of new forms of social and political identity?

The relationship between electoral systems, social cleavages, and party system formation in developing nations has undergone important transformations over time, influenced by the interplay of democratization processes, globalization, and the rise of new social and political identities. While early comparative political science scholarship, particularly following the sociological-institutional insights of Lipset and Rokkan (1967), emphasized the structuring role of historical cleavages — such as class, religion, ethnicity, and urban–rural divides — on the formation of stable party systems, subsequent research has increasingly recognized that in developing contexts, the dynamics are far more fluid, contingent, and mediated by both institutional design and global forces.

Historically, much of the early literature on developing nations focused on the transplantation of Western electoral systems — particularly majoritarian or proportional systems — and their variable capacity to accommodate local social cleavages. Duverger’s (1954) famous hypotheses suggested that plurality electoral systems tended to produce two-party systems, while proportional representation (PR) encouraged multiparty systems. Yet empirical work in post-colonial Africa, Asia, and Latin America revealed considerable divergence from these expectations, largely because social cleavages in developing societies were often shaped not by industrial class conflict or ideological divides, but by ethnic, linguistic, tribal, or religious identities, which interacted with formal institutions in unpredictable ways.

In many post-colonial settings, the design of electoral systems — whether inherited from colonial powers or engineered during constitutional transitions — played a key role in shaping the initial contours of party competition. In ethnically fragmented societies, majoritarian systems often produced exclusionary outcomes, as seen in countries like Nigeria or Sri Lanka, where first-past-the-post (FPTP) rules amplified ethnic majorities and marginalized minority voices, fueling conflict and undermining regime legitimacy (Horowitz, 1985). By contrast, proportional or mixed systems, as adopted in post-apartheid South Africa or post-dictatorship Brazil, were often viewed as mechanisms to broaden representation, foster coalition-building, and mitigate zero-sum ethnic or regional rivalries.

However, as democratization processes unfolded — particularly following the Third Wave of democratization (Huntington, 1991) — the relationship between cleavages and party systems in developing nations became more dynamic. Democratization often unleashed new social forces, including urbanization, economic liberalization, and the expansion of civil society, which reshaped the social bases of political competition. In some cases, longstanding cleavages such as caste in India (Chandra, 2004) or ethnicity in Kenya (Barkan, 2001) remained central to electoral mobilization, but they were increasingly mediated by clientelistic networks, personalized leadership, and shifting coalition patterns, making party systems fluid and volatile rather than institutionalized and programmatic.

The impact of globalization further complicated this landscape by altering the socioeconomic context in which parties operated. Economic liberalization, transnational media flows, and global policy diffusion reconfigured the material and ideational resources available to political actors. On one hand, globalization weakened traditional class-based cleavages by disrupting labor markets, reducing the salience of left–right ideological divides, and fostering new middle-class or urban constituencies with different political priorities (Levitsky and Roberts, 2011). On the other hand, globalization intensified certain identity-based cleavages, as local communities mobilized around cultural, religious, or nationalist concerns in response to perceived threats from global integration (Rudolph and Rudolph, 2001). This gave rise to new forms of identity politics, including religious revivalism (e.g., Islamist parties in Turkey or Indonesia), indigenous movements (e.g., the MAS in Bolivia), or anti-globalization populism (e.g., Chávez’s movement in Venezuela), which reshaped the ideological landscape of party systems.

Additionally, the rise of new social movements and political identities, often articulated through digital platforms and transnational advocacy networks, has begun to erode the traditional centrality of electoral parties as the primary vehicles of representation. Movements mobilized around environmentalism, gender rights, LGBTQ+ issues, or anti-corruption agendas have in some cases bypassed formal party structures altogether, generating new forms of contentious politics and challenging the representational capacity of existing party systems (Tarrow, 2005; Della Porta, 2013). While some parties have successfully co-opted these demands, in many developing democracies, the failure of party systems to adapt to new social cleavages has contributed to voter volatility, declining partisan identification, and the rise of outsider or anti-establishment candidates.

Methodologically, recent comparative research has moved beyond deterministic models linking electoral systems and cleavages to fixed party system outcomes. Scholars increasingly emphasize contingent, interactive, and path-dependent processes (Mainwaring and Scully, 1995; Tavits, 2005), recognizing that party system institutionalization in developing democracies is shaped not only by structural factors but also by historical legacies, elite strategies, institutional innovations, and international influences. For example, Mainwaring and Scully’s (1995) influential work on Latin America highlighted how varying degrees of institutionalization — rather than just the number of parties — determined the stability and functionality of party systems, shaping patterns of accountability, representation, and democratic consolidation.

In sum, the evolution of the impact of electoral systems and cleavages on party system formation in developing nations reflects a complex interplay of democratization, globalization, and the emergence of new political identities. While formal electoral rules continue to shape the mechanics of party competition, they do so in interaction with dynamic social structures, historical trajectories, and global pressures. Contemporary party systems in developing democracies are marked by a high degree of fluidity, hybridity, and contestation, challenging older assumptions about institutional stability and raising critical questions about the capacity of parties to aggregate interests, structure political competition, and sustain democratic governance in an era of rapid change.